Grow

Let’s play a simple game and see if you are really smart! I just ate a delicious chocolate. I love these and I absolutely want one more of these. And I am lucky. There are still left in the chocolate box. In fact, there are 3 left. So I am slyly grabbing one more. I have eaten now two and there are still two left in the box. In a next iteration, I ate the third, leaving only one in the box.  The last one … dawn, now the box is empty. But I am still not satisfied. There are really no other sweats in the house? Nothing! So what is happening now?  Can I still take one more?

Not possible! Logic, no?

Well then, it is proven: you are stupid! In fact, we are all stupid. Because if it comes down to our economic system it does not work like that. As you know economic experts and politicians are way more smarter than all of us together; so for them this game does not stop here; in fact it never stops and continues for ever. They keep on picking imaginary “chocolates” from somewhere and they assume that you will be able to pick these sweats forever … . They keep on growing even if there are no more chocolates in the box. How do they do that? Let me explain.

The economy is doing bad. We all know that! You hear it almost every day in the news. And it has to start growing again. From Van Rompuy up to Obama all know it: Economic growth is what we need! Reasonable, no? The assumption that we need growth to get us out of this crisis is evident.

But lets think about that! Experts say the ideal rhythm for this growth is 3 percent per year! What does that mean? This means a doubling of the economy every 23 years! I will repeat it: a doubling of the economy every 23 years (and then we even do not account for the huge world population growth or the upcoming middle class in the developing & growing countries). This exponential growth is also true for the resources (like minerals and oil) we use in our economy. In this doubling period, e.g. from here up to 23 years later we will consume the same amount of resources ever consumed before (by us, our parents, grandparents, etc. up to men making fire out of stones).

But wait a minute: are these resources not limited? Some figures:

• Let’s take “Oil”, the engine of our economy. It is estimated that the peak production of oil was in the year 2006 and by 2030 there will be only the half of that production. Moreover the easy oil has gone, so oil will become terribly expensive. Just to give you an idea on the speed we are consuming that oil:  95% of all oil found up to now is used in something like only 70 years! 70 years, that’s peanuts looking at the period of existence of men kind …. Your grandmother or even your parents were born then already! So we are talking about now and the next generation, not about some far future.
• Some more figures. When will the following resource be totally finished in a scenario of resource growth like it is today?:
• Gas: 2045
• Zinc: 2025 (that’s a big 10 years!)
• Lead: 2025
• And the list continues: your children and grand-children now born will live in a resource-poor world!

“If something is not able to continue, it probably want.” It is just a rational look at it. For centuries we were blinded for the irrational aspects of the system. There are bio-physical limits to economic growth. We can have technological innovations and increase in efficiency, but still, where do we have to keep on getting these resources? At least that is how I, stupid earth creator, think. For our politicians and economists it does not seem to work like that; they keep on putting all their eggs in the growth model, they continue to promote the harvesting of these invisible chocolates out of this box.

So what is the solution? To be clear: there is no simple straightforward solution, but one things sure: We need to go for a better economy, not a bigger economy! A local  and smaller economy, in balance with the world’s resources. An economy serving the people again, not the other way around!

So to conclude:

1. Be aware of politicians and economist: That you knew probably already, but still it is worth a repetition.
2. There are limits to growth. The world resources are finite. Economic growth is not thé solution.
3. “Less is more”, is also viable for our economy.